domingo, 30 de abril de 2017

The End: Hunger Against Weapons

By Alex Vallenilla / @alexvallenilla

As the real political, social and economic crisis develops, the outcome is set, options are chosen and two great opponents, who will have to deal in a short time, define this issue, because it will not be possible to postpone it: Hunger against weapons.

More than 80% of the Venezuelan population is suffering from a general lack of food.
The people are hungry and the government has no way to keep it anymore. It's over. On the one hand because it does not have sufficient resources. When calculating what Venezuela demands in foreign currency, for the entire population to have food consumption, as stipulated in the food basket, requires an internal production or food import, at least 6.5 million million Dollars per month Domestic producers, hard penalties can produce 2 billion dollars a year. The government only has gross income, by the oil route of 2.3 billion dollars a month.

What PDVSA receives, for the oil revenue, without deducting the operating costs, is only 35.38% of what this country requires to feed properly. Meanwhile, government factors in vain attempt to alleviate with a bag of food, which reaches the communities every six or four months, that so far there is no satisfaction more than 3% of the food needs that this country has. Others are condemned to pay food prices, a parallel dollar rate, especially at the borders, the situation that has impoverished the population, which loses assets, savings and investments to cover their support, a situation that in Time will become unworkable as well.

This sets up the hunger. The one that has for so long stimulated the "subsistence riots," those protests that in some circles of opinion have criticized that people claim for the food bag and not for freedom. In the last month, millions of Venezuelans have been seen, especially in Caracas, ready to fight against the regime, people who have lost their fear, people who stopped being, as they were also told, conformists. People who do not have enough to eat, when their income only reaches 20% of what it costs the little food that is obtained. It is a situation that under the scheme of government of Nicolás Maduro and the military that the companion, not reverse, but on the contrary, become worse and worse. This is the home and the majority, 90% of the population, wants the end of the Maduro regime.

The other side is very small, but very powerful. This is the tiny group of generals, the High Military Command and many commanders of garrisons, who have control of weapons, the latter is what gives them power, because currently, through the GNB, repress the social discontent that Has emerged from the economic and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. The firepower is able to dissuade, to make back and to intimidate, effect that only lasts a few days, and the people come again and again, because the bullets do not take away the hunger.

In this crisis in which Venezuela has entered, repression does not have the social reaction, which they intend to tackle with additional food bags, which will not last long.

The hungry people, coincides with political factors, make choices so that with a change of government, by peaceful means, change, be in peace and stable. But within chavismo, there are factors that have adverse situations with international justice and refuse with all that they can, that some type of election is made since they are now afraid of voting. What is counterproductive for them alike, because to more radicalization, less investment, loans are not obtained and this helps to that the hunger is strengthened, therefore the social displeasure also. Precisely military factors, corrupted, coincide with that vision, if they deliver, lose.

The danger hanging over Venezuela is that there are all the conditions for an overcoming situation to occur. Hunger, which generated the violence of "El Caracazo" in 1989 and was much smaller than what is now, has been widely justified in the Chavista discourse, and one can run into the arms of those who refuse to yield, Fact is already happening, almost 30 dead in the framework of the current terminal crisis.

The current head of weapons is Defense Minister Valdimir Padrino López. From hunger, it is not possible to locate, who will command these forces, because it is an enemy that is not organized, does not have a structure and no one knows where it is going to attack, or at what time, barely seen the teeth of this fierce part Of conflict in doors, in some neighborhoods. They are the hunger of the people and the minister's weapons, the decisive factors in the coming weeks. Who will win the battle? If there is no food, the hunger never ends, the bullets are finished and if there are no food resources, there will be no bullets. 04/28/2017

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