jueves, 27 de abril de 2017

The tyranny of Maduro, has no salvation

By Alex Vallenilla / @alexvallenilla

The terminal crisis arrives. The chavomadurista dome, that in the last two years has concentrated its efforts, to avoid being overthrown, arrives at a moment of break, that is definitive. Castrocommunism, which runs from Cuba, which attempted to implement a system of food rationing in the country, to stretch the resources that enter Venezuela, fails to stop the gigantic corruption of the main hierarchs of the regime, this being one of the main causes Of the national economic debacle.

The economic crisis, resulting in a social crisis, and the social contributes, with national discontent in 92%, according to the latest numbers that Miraflores handles, to forge a political crisis, all three aspects lead to a general crisis. Maduro bet that he could with the rationing of food, sustain or stretch his situation beyond 2018, is Raul Castro's order so be it. Now it has, not a problem, but three, and the three united in a single complaint, with widespread protests, across the country, with massive demonstrations of people on the streets, with situations of chaos, repression, more than 25 deaths, Clashes, hundreds of injuries and detainees, all under the eye of the OAS and the rest of the world.

The general collapse has its numbers. A society that does not have the capacity to generate its own support. Venezuelan companies can not contribute more than 20% of what is consumed internally, the regime, has not been able to cover more than 3% of the food needs of the whole country, since July 2016. The population barely has income of 14 , 5% for food, education, health and life in general. The government and PDVSA, are broken. To repay debt recently, they had to hand over mixed oil shares and turn over to the capital of Russia's Rosneft, in addition to putting more assets into the BCV. The government's real incomes have fallen by almost 70% in real terms, both with the money they produce, as well as with the oil revenue, as well as with tax revenues. All of this indicates that at this point, it is impossible for the regime to reverse the economic crisis, so it can not do anything to stop the social crisis, which generates the total discontent, which fuels the call to the streets, which are capitalizing the Political parties, opposition leaders and more radical factors of vision. The crisis has been amalgamated, everything has been united in one.

Separately, Maduro could not resolve, bet on the hunger and the people of Venezuela, shows that this is not Cuba, is on the street, raised and wants the end of the regime. Much was noticed of the errors that the chavismo made, when radicalizing with the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ), its actions outside the legal order. The last thing was to have given the coup d'etat, annulling the National Assembly, which has resulted in a wave of demonstrations since the first days of April, in which the determination of all sectors of the country is perceived, to which the government must change.

The dead end
The government, which for three years built this situation, is already in the phase of the "house of cards", which is unstable and staggers, about to collapse. The gigantic march of April 19, only had to cross the barriers of the military and repression fell that day, however, political prudence avoided unnecessary deaths and massacres, because equally, that collapse can not be avoided.

Chavismo tries to respond to this crisis, addressing political polarization, which will not work. The political has strength, due to the social crisis, and the social crisis exists, because there is an economic crisis. Nicolás, Castro, Cabello, El Aissami, Jaua and Padrino López, have no possibility of reversing this repressively, because the international political cost will be much higher than it already is, and is currently very high, seen has been. Internally, when in the popular sectors, the population appreciates that this regime can no longer feed them, there is no political discourse that is worth, especially against "imperialism", "the right" and everything that the regime used always and Hunger has become obsolete. If repression continues, the people's fury will be much stronger in the coming days.

The regime would have to seek a negotiating or immolating space. Although he only has an opportunity to negotiate his departure, at least seeking to guarantee the integrity of the high ranking, they will not be able to demand anything more, later the justice, restored will have its work. For this regime to reverse this crisis, it needs to solve the economic crisis, to reverse the effects of the social crisis and weaken the battle that has already lost in the political arena and that will not achieve in 15 days, a month, three months, since Hunger is widespread. It is an almost total collapse of society, a matter, which personal interests, did not allow them to see. Just as they were astonished, with the defeat in the National Assembly (AN), on December 6, 2015, they were surprised, with the uprising of El Valle and other popular sectors in the Caracas west, that despite the threats of the Armed groups, mercenaries, have been on the street, demanding not only the elections, but the end of this regime, which is starving the population.

This government, in a move that could help it to stretch its survival, could appeal to humanitarian aid, however, that carries more political cost and would not solve the situation of famine that there is. Trying to negotiate spaces to resist, will carry more political costs still. Resisting as they have now, leads to collapse as unsustainable. If the regime is looking for negotiations, it will have to deliver almost everything, because it has now forced to raise the cost of what opposition factors demand, if they insist on the "forward flight", the collapse of these will be catastrophic. 27/04/2017

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