Such is the silent internal war in the regime to suspend the constituent

The Castro-communist sector knows that it is exposed at the abrupt end, if it continues with the execution of the "constituent", the militarist sector wants it because this way to displace the Cubans to negotiate their situation of sanctions directly with the US

By Alex Vallenilla / @alexvallenilla

The week that arrives, will be very newsworthy. There is too much concern in the regime, which has unleashed a wave of mass arrests against demonstrators, especially those who lead the "seedlings" and stir the streets, the purpose is to dismantle the largest number of groups that make this kind of protest So that on July 30, the election day of the "constituent assembly" there is no force in the streets, however can advance that the rebellion is already well advanced, very ingrained in the spring in Venezuela, which, The Castro There is no understanding, because it has never been dealt with by a revolution of the type that develops in the country, there is no CIA or Eastern Europe in times of communism.

The roar of Trump, the week that culminates, has killed the military who are singled out for corruption, from fortunes in the US through family members, front men and interposed people, millions are frozen fortunes and there are new ones on the lists. This has deepened the differences within the radical gang, both sectors that go together circumstantially, the pro-Cuban sectors and the corrupt military.

To carry out the "constituent assembly" is clearly perceived in the Castro-communist sector as a tactical error, since the effects of this action are irreversible and help to put an end to the regime immediately. In a previous article, he explained in this space the possibilities of more than a thousand days of the election, since July 29 the calls are verified overwhelmed by millions of demonstrators, all sectors, all ages, who would leave Avoid with a strong national rebellion that the desperate leadership regime managed to perpetrate electoral fraud with which to seek to assume full power, with the excuse of changing the constitution to solve the economic crisis. In the bodies of intelligence and intelligence, which have the verified data of the magnitude of the street revolts, they know that it can be almost impossible that the elections in normal conditions shows what the CNE is, has reduced the processes For the vote, for those who carry them, do so in the shortest possible time and thus have as many votes as possible earlier that day, ordered to leave to vote from the first hours, try to have less than two million votes in the The first few hours in order to inflate the results, have extended to 500 meters the security limits of each polling station and most recently they have changed the voting rule by the center, so that people vote to vote Anywhere, that reveals The deep fear they have, that the population comes to face fraud. The expected abstention is less 85% to 90% and in the sector of public workers by surprises, because the rebellion of the employees in the government shocked the same conveners, that day "will take their toll", that is why Nicolás and Cabello For the time being, demand that they be reviewed in the enterprises of the public enterprises, of the state statutes, it is foreseeable that they will not be obtained with the threats to move many people.

The disaster that the Castro-Communist or Pro-Cuban sector predicts against the Constituent party has forced them to seek negotiations, the decisions directed by Raúl Castro over his control of Miraflores, with the powers that are interested in Venezuela, Castro considers that it is not Prudent to carry out the election, which would not be surprising that the sea suspended in the course of the week or a day before, although Padrino Lopez is mobilizing troops and electoral material, incidentally moves troops tired of eating fish and Every day, affected by the crisis.

Before the sector for Cuban and those who are not part of these businesses and who know that their heads are at stake, the militarist sector, which relies on Cabello, does not agree with suspending the "constituent assembly", so they develop His own play, in open confrontation against the castro-communist sector. The militaristic group that is sanctioned by the United States, where fortunes are frozen and is the fundamental issue of its radical position, estimates that if the Castro-communist sector leaves, that the Pro-Cubans leave, but they will continue to lead the power, they do not accept that The MUD assumes control of the country due to threats that all those who have crimes will be brought to justice. This group aspires to have control of the country, to continue its position and to have the way to negotiate directly with the US its situation, avoiding thus to be prey of negotiation of the Castro with US and Europe.

While the effects of making the "constituent assembly" would be devastating in the economy, assuming that the militaristic radical factor imposes itself, and does not have the strength to do so, the parallel dollar would be climbing abruptly on the 20 thousand and 25 thousand bolivars in a matter of hours from the moment they announce results, and from there it would be indescribable at any point as the illegal issue progresses, as a response of the markets to the distrust of what is unknown and what will happen In political and legal terms, due to the limbo that would be entered in relation to the super powers of the "constituent assembly", because the proposals "parapetos" of the campaign that VTV emits, what it does is to terrify the country, this would bring like Radicalization of the street riots, since the price of food would be impossible to cover. Currently at least 1.7 million public employees, barely charge $ 13 per month, with salaries six months ago, the rebellion by hunger will be much more intense, which will not give stability to the "new power" that would be erected, This limits the validity of this "constituent assembly", which could be dying at the time of birth, would be topped with international sanctions and the commercial blockade of PDVSA, not sending gasoline components to be manufactured in the country, The definitive disaster. This allows to determine that the "constituent" does not go. 7/21/2017